What do you think will happen in the next 4 years with Trump after January?

[Sakura]

This thread was deleted on another forum run by hard lefties, similar to Reddit, where positive discussions about Trump and his policies are not allowed. So, I’m bringing it back here.

As the thread starter, I ask that we keep this discussion respectful and within the forum’s TOS.

With the election over, what do you think the next four years will look like under Trump, starting in January?

1) Lower taxes
2) No additional taxes for high-income groups
3) Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol
4) Higher tariffs on European steel and aluminum
5) 60% tariffs on China imports
6) Increased fees for all U.S. military bases
7) Possible truce in Russia-Ukraine conflict, with eastern Ukraine ceded to Russia in exchange for lifted sanctions
8) Increased support for Israel in its conflicts

There’s also a suggestion that extra tariffs (point 4) could increase the cost of Lamborghini cars in the future. And regarding Russia, someone pointed out that a truce may be unlikely due to its history of pride and dominance.

What do you think?

 

[Sakura]

Ah yes, a 25% border tax on Canada and Mexico, plus an extra 10% on China, bringing the total to 20 percent.

Items under 800 dollars are temporarily exempt, so this likely targets larger goods like commodities and cars.

Now, those countries retaliated and put similar border taxes.

Inflation is going to skyrocket for US consumers. Energy prices are going to skyrocket. Products may decline in quality and manufacturing will struggle with labor strikes and worker rights. Younger YouTube generation is not suited for heavy and tedious factory jobs.

These border taxes seem like the US is hurting itself. You can't boost manufacturing if you don't have the people, the will, the culture and technology to do it. Things produced will be a pile of trash.

And what is with the recent children drama in the oval office? Peace does not come from humiliating the losing side. Now they will fight to the bitter end.

The economy is in trouble, war continues, inflation is rising, and I have no idea what is coming next. I suspect recession is coming to the US because Feds may raise interest rates, loans will become harder to get, Dollars will become more expensive against other currencies, and more people will lose jobs due to recession.

Somebody smart in economy, please enlighten....

 

[Luzifer]

Trump is doing many things like Adolf Hitler from 1933 and onward, this is scary stuff. All this talk about Canada becoming the 51th state is the same concept of Hitler when he used so much propaganda to gain momentum from the population before invading countries.

It's looking very grim the consumers will lose no matter what in both countries. The recession is only going to deepen. Nobody wins except the governments. Electricity from the province of Ontario to 3 US states were tariffed at 25% and Trump said he would impose more tariffs. Ontario will shut down their electricity if he imposes more tariff... He also cancelled a 100 million dollar Starlink contract with Musk.
Alcohol from the US has been taken off the shelves in many provinces and is no longer allowed in.
If one of the new prime minister candidate gets elected she will impose 100% tariff on Tesla.
One provincial government is going to provide up to 50M loans so business can survive and redirect their plans of business.

I'm keeping a close eye on the news, hopefully I don't have to flee the country.

 

[Rampante21]

Id be surprised if he survives the first year even…not getting any new friends except Russian ones

 

[Luzifer]

Id be surprised if he survives the first year even…not getting any new friends except Russian ones

Survive... dethroned as president?

The latest news, another province just threatened to shut off the electricity to the US. I know exactly which state will be affected because I worked on building one of those stations, the power lines are huge. This would affect New York and many millions of people going in the dark. They would be scrambling to get their energy from other states at a huge markup.

We are in a recession right now and it will get a lot worse.

 

[REKIII]

I don't understand the Tariffs on Canada. I understand them on China and Mexico. There is no winner in an economic battle between US and Canada. It makes zero sense.
regarding Trump in general.....some scary stuff going on. I foresee the US, and probably world going down in flames in the next 6 months. But, I will add, it would still be better than if Kamala had gotten in.

 

[Sakura]

I did some research to find the logic for these trade wars.

Here's the list of gov treasury holder (gov bond's holder) and its comparable direct investment in United States.

The US funds its government by selling debt through government bonds, which can be purchased by almost any country. It is like giving the US money to fund their gov spending, in exchange of bonds.

Some countries buy these bonds to weaken their own currency. This happens because purchasing US bonds requires exchanging their local currency for US dollars, increasing demand for USD. When fewer US dollars are in circulation, the dollar strengthens, and their own currency weakens, making their exports more competitive.

The US allows this type of investment but objects when it is done purely for currency manipulation. This is highly hypocritical, as the US also manipulates its currency when it suits its interests.

Countries that invest heavily in the US economy, beyond just buying bonds, are seen as good trading partners, while those that focus mainly on bond purchases face more scrutiny.

Country	Treasury Holdings (Billion USD)	FDI in U.S. (Billion USD)	Treasury/FDI (%)
Japan	1060	721	147.02
China	759	55	1380.00
United Kingdom	668	512	130.47
Belgium	354	343	103.21
Luxembourg	329	352	93.47
Cayman Islands	304	N/A	N/A
Switzerland	276	343	80.47
Ireland	274	343	79.88
Taiwan	274	N/A	N/A
Canada	241	352	68.47

You can see China continues to buy US government bonds while investing very little in the US economy. They are purchasing 13.8 times more in bonds than they invest directly in the US, all while maintaining a low-valued yuan. With a weak yuan, achieving fair trade is nearly impossible, even with border taxes.

The US expects foreign countries to fund its government spending while also taking on the risk of investing directly in the country. If the US economy were to crash, Japan would crash too as it is both the largest holder of US bonds and one of the biggest direct investors. Back in 2008, during subprime loan problem or Lehman shock, the Japanese Yen appreciated so high to the roof causing the export to stall while they lost all their direct investment.

Trump imposed only a 20% border tax on China because many US companies heavily rely on Chinese imports. Raising it beyond 20% would have quickly hurt the US economy. Meanwhile, countries that the US is less dependent on but geographically closer, like Canada (ranked 10th) and Mexico (ranked 19th), were charged 25% tariffs instead. It is completely unfair.

Investing in US manufacturing is difficult due to strict labor laws and inefficient production processes. Many US business owners moved manufacturing overseas for this reason, and bringing them back is nearly impossible.

Japanese companies have suffered significant losses when investing in the US. Toshiba, SoftBank, Sega, and Ataka all lost huge amounts of money. Honda built the NSX in the US, but sales were disappointing because no one bought the car. Also, if Nippon Steel does not have decision-making power, they will likely lose everything in the US market.

I see a 4-years vacation is in order because one can't sail in rough waters.

 

[REKIII]

Excellent insight from an angle I haven't seen before. Thank you for compiling that.
I don't agree with it, but you've given some logic to my Canada question. I had also always assumed china was the biggest US Bond holder, I did not know it was Japan. Certain irony there I suppose.
You hit the nail on the head with the labor issue. This is a tough one. In my opinion, US businesses decided to capitalize on, what is basically, slave labor in other countries (which from some reason was horrible to a particular party when they did it, and now is OK by that same party). This allowed them to keep making record profits without raising prices. The fact of the matter is, all labor should be equally valued, so the tariffs effectively even that playing field. You want to capitalize on slave labor that is cheaper than other countries? OK, then pay 25% more for goods to get them in as punishment for not using more expensive US labor.
Here is another dynamic though.....what about labor that doesn't convert directly to tariff-able goods? I do design work, on the computer. Some of my clients are going to Indian companies that do the 'same' work for 20-50% the price. No way to tariff the work, so I lose out. I see this as unfortunate for me, but a very scary trend. Company says....'OK I bring back manufacturing and unskilled assembly line work to the US, but I outsource all my R&D, development etc to other countries'.....now where does that get us????

 

[Sakura]

Very good points. There is no tariffs for digital goods. After Covid, companies are firing local staffs and outsourced them to overseas. They figured out that they can cut costs and survive just fine with remote work.

Myself I outsource projects too, but I refrain picking candidates or companies from countries that have no real IP laws. For this reason, I usually pick ones based in US, Canada, or Germany. Absolutely no for China, India, Pakistan, etc. I have my lawyers there ready to protect me if they leak NDA or reused my finished projects for someone else. Good thing most of the people that help my projects are very good people and professional.

 

[FontusBluG]

Thanks for the invite @Luzifer. I'm afraid I don't have much to add at this point, other than I am afraid. Haven't been paying too much attention to things assuming everything was going to be all roses once the administration changed. Not so....... but too early to judge I guess anyway. I did notice the Canadian Tariff and couldn't see the sense in it, but who the hell am I to question things. I'm just going to hang on tight and hopefully avoid getting thrown into orbit, what is Elon doing ? !!

 

[Luzifer]

Thanks for the invite @Luzifer. I'm afraid I don't have much to add at this point, other than I am afraid. Haven't been paying too much attention to things assuming everything was going to be all roses once the administration changed. Not so....... but too early to judge I guess anyway. I did notice the Canadian Tariff and couldn't see the sense in it, but who the hell am I to question things. I'm just going to hang on tight and hopefully avoid getting thrown into orbit, what is Elon doing ? !!

Welcome to the forum!

What are you guys more afraid of, a 25% increase in cost on most things or all his shakedown moves?

 

[Sakura]

I think US gov is trying to juggle 3 balls while bouncing on a trampoline. Inflation, US Dollars, and debt are the balls. Trampoline is the economy.

Inflation is rising due to sudden tariffs.

US Dollars is rising as the currency is becoming like a commodity now. People buys them and keeps them as investment. Feds also increased banking rates causing US Dollars to increase in value.

Gov debt. The gov keeps on selling bonds to fund its expenses.

How you get achieve a fair trade with the above conditions.

To fix gov debt and strong US Dollars, they are forcing countries to invest back using any means necessary. This includes bullying allies to pay more for anything including defense pacts.

Lowering Fed rates is an option but they will never do it probably because they welcome inflation. Inflation is better than devaluation because the latter can cause the economy wheel to stop spinning.

And to keep the economy wheel to keep spinning, war must be avoided especially with the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

So expect more bullying to allies and neighboring countries for cash. And expect more bullying to the weaker countries to achieve peace.

Btw, welcome, @FontusBluG , to the forum! @Luzifer rocks!

 

[Luzifer]

The threat of annexing Canada is getting me worried, they don't make it a big deal it on the news but his constant comments about annexing Canada and saying he doesn't believe in the 1908 treaties and wants to take the lakes and rivers and a portion of the lower lands and hints of using military force is very concerning. This is very serious.

What country in Europe would be a good place to go?

 

[Rampante21]

The threat of annexing Canada is getting me worried, they don't make it a big deal it on the news but his constant comments about annexing Canada and saying he doesn't believe in the 1908 treaties and wants to take the lakes and rivers and a portion of the lower lands and hints of using military force is very concerning. This is very serious.

What country in Europe would be a good place to go?

Welcome to Sweden. It is actually a nice place to live

 

[Sakura]

How about Japan? You are most welcome here! If you like manga, anime, or cultures here, this country is one of the best.

For retirement, I think Malaysia is also a nice place to live. Warm climate, moderate gov, cheap living expenses, generally safe and sort of multicultural. The language is easy to learn too.

I’ve never been to Sweden, but will check it out! I always wonder about Sweden since Sven Goran Erikksen era.

 

[Luzifer]

Thanks for the offers!

 

[Luzifer]

A Canadian politician is publically saying to avoid traveling to the US if all possible, kidnapping and seizure is now a real thing from ice. Many horrors stories have come out. You might be stuck sleeping on bare concrete floor for weeks or months, they don't shut down the lights and deprive you from any medication you take. etc.

This is getting bad.

 

[REKIII]

Yeah....so most or all of that is not real.
If you are a legal canadian citizen with non-expired passport, you are fine.
It is not 'getting bad'. The left is cherry picking extreme cases to publicize and create outrage and hate.

 

[Sakura]

I heard local Japanese cops periodically visit foreigners to check on their passports. Like once a year. The control is happening at the lowest level of enforcement. Those that overstayed got arrested and then deported. I don’t hear anything about inhuman treatment during the deportation. Some foreigners came to Japan to take advantage of the medical system. The gov pay like half the cost regardless of whether you have an insurance or not. There has been talk recently to abolish the system.

 

[REKIII]

I heard local Japanese cops periodically visit foreigners to check on their passports. Like once a year. The control is happening at the lowest level of enforcement. Those that overstayed got arrested and then deported. I don’t hear anything about inhuman treatment during the deportation. Some foreigners came to Japan to take advantage of the medical system. The gov pay like half the cost regardless of whether you have an insurance or not. There has been talk recently to abolish the system.

It seems when other countries do reasonable things, it's OK. And yeah, that is garbage. Your medical system is paid for by you and should benefit you, I shouldn't expect to come there and get the same treatment unless I become a citizen or permanent resident and pay taxes.